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Derby Doings - Florida Derby Edition


Saturday, March 31, 2018 will mark the first in a succession of Kentucky Derby prep races which offer a great tradition in producing Kentucky Derby winners. The Florida Derby has produced three of the last five Kentucky Derby winners: Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016), and Always Dreaming (2017). The field is as follows:




Florida Derby, Saturday, March 31, 2018 Gulfstream Park 1 1/8 mile
 


PP        Horse                           Jockey                         Trainer


1          Strike Power                Luis Saez                     Mark A. Hennig


2          Millionaire Runner      Jose A. Batista             Jaime Mejia


3          Tip Sheet                     Edgard J. Zayas            Stanley I. Gold


4          Promises Fulfilled       Robby Albarado           Dale L. Romans


5          Storm Runner              Tyler Gaffalione           Dale L. Romans


6          Catholic Boy               Irad Ortiz, Jr.                 Jonathan Thomas


7          Hofburg                       Jose L. Ortiz                 William I. Mott


8          Audible                       John R. Velazquez         Todd A. Pletcher


9          Mississippi                 Julien R. Leparoux         Mark E. Casse



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Audible (9/5) comes off a convincing 5 ½-length victory in the Grade II Holy Bull Stakes. He stretches to 1 1/8 mile for the first time and will need to outrun his sprint-heavy pedigree.


Promises Fulfilled (3/1) scored a front running victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He will try the same tactic in the Florida Derby. If he gets another ideal pace scenario, he is a threat to lead every step of the way.


Catholic Boy (7/2) comes into the race with only two starts since December. He won the Grade II Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct in December and raced second in the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Down on February 10. He is one of only two horses in the field to have raced at the 1 1/8 mile distance (Remsen).


I can make a case against each of the above horses for winning the race, so for win betting purposes I am looking at horses with longer odds. Those would include:

Longshots

Strike Power (4/1) comes off a surprising second place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in his first start around two turns.


Storm Runner (20/1) is an experienced horse with seven lifetime starts and two wins at 1 1/16 mile. He was keen to run in the Fountain of Youth, pressing Promises Fulfilled along the rail, but was squeezed twice down the backstretch and backed up in the final 3/8 of a mile. I like this horse and love the potential odds. MY PICK


Probably Not

Millionaire Runner (50/1) has only a maiden claiming win to his credit and has been off the board his last four starts.


Tip Sheet (30/1) was well behind Audible in the Holy Bull and appears outclassed in this field.


Hofburg (20/1) is a bit of an unknown as he just broke his maiden the same day as the Fountain of Youth. His winning time that day was only 1.37 seconds slower than Promises Fulfilled. He could fill out a superfecta ticket at a nice price.


Mississippi (12/1) finished second to Storm Runner his last race, and was second to Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy two races back. I don’t believe he will win, but he could be used underneath in exotics.


 

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